LESSONS FROM THE PRESENT
The crisis has shown that many of our global and national safety nets are frayed. Estimates of the number
of people who could enter the category of new poor suggest that vulnerable populations may be falling
through the cracks in record numbers.
A clear lesson that decision makers have learned is that they need to act fast and in a targeted and
sustained manner to minimize the domestic reverberations of outside shocks on their populations.
The record has been quite respectable on the first point: Many governments have reacted quickly to the emerging
global recession, putting in place a variety of programmes to stimulate growth and domestic demand
through, for example, tax cuts, infrastructure spending and employment measures. Some governments have extended
the coverage of social protection measures to lessen the burden on their most vulnerable populations.
Hitting the right target has been more challenging. In the context of a complex crisis, where multiple
global shocks interact, ascertaining who is most vulnerable and in need of assistance is not easy. Vulnerabilities
can shift and at times appear in unexpected locales. For an effective response that reaches those who need it
most, exact and timely information is required. Some governments, reportedly, have had to shelve assistance
plans because they could not be sure that funds would reach those most in need.
In the current crisis, existing social protection programmes may prove insufficient. They have been primarily
focused on assisting the structurally poor; that is, population groups already living in poverty before the
crisis. But a new vulnerable group has emerged: the near poor, who in the pre-crisis years had managed to lift
themselves just above the poverty line. Hit by a succession of global crises, they now lack the means to prevent
a slide back into poverty. Social protection programmes need to serve as a helping hand lifting people out of
chronic poverty but also as risk insurance against a return to destitution.
Governments have been asked to act at a time when it is likely that their fiscal space has been already
severely limited due to their earlier responses to the food and fuel crises. Many of the hardest-hit countries
lack the funds to take appropriate actions. Their vulnerable populations cannot be left outside the global
response. They will need sustained and, in many cases, increased donor support.
With some early signs pointing to a possible end of the global economic crisis, an urgent need remains to
ensure that recovery is equally global, leaving no region, country or population behind. The post-crisis growth
path needs to provide a new, forceful trajectory that propels population groups above the poverty line.
Recovery must be job-intensive, pro-poor and sustainable.
